Fuller, Graham E. "A World Without Islam"
Divergence: c 600 CE
Summary: Long essay arguing that even without a prophet Mohammed, the world today would be much as it is, confronted with similar problems, including terrorism. No timeline is advanced and few concrete assertions are made, aside from a statement that the Mideast would be largely Orthodox Christian and Southeast Asia Hindu.
Published: In Foreign Policy #164 (January/February 2008).