Grant, Charles S. "Bonaparte's Campaign in Egypt"
Divergence: 1798 CE
What if: Napoleon had given his fleet permission to leave Aboukir Bay, and it thus avoided destruction at the hands of Nelson.
Summary: The French fleet still at large, Nelson flees the Mediterranean lest his fleet be cutoff at Gibraltar. Able to receive reinforcements, Napoleon successfully conquers Syria, defeats the Turks, and creates a stable French government in Egypt. In subsequent years, this will lead to India split being the French and British.
Published: In The Napoleon Options: Alternate Decisions of the Napoleonic Wars (ed. Jonathan North), q.v.